Not so sure about how the Big East or Big 12 could lose their AQ status. I think as long as they have 6 or more FB members, they will not be losing that status. It is the one big carrot they both have to attract additional members. As with TCU's move, it would be a step up to go from CUSA, WAC or MtW to an AQ conference. I imagine if an AQ conference could have lost that status, the Big East would have done so when BC and Miami went to the ACC. The Big East has already reloaded once or twice before, so it will come as no surprise when they do it again. Perhaps they will finally persuade Villanova to move up from FCS like UConn did. Air Force, Navy, BYU and that hardy perennial, Notre Dame are all in the cross-hairs as well.
As for the Big XII, what a basket case! We really should want to have a Central Time Zone conference, but it's looking more and more like the remnants of the SWC after Texas, TAMU, Tech and Baylor deserted that conference in the mid 90s. Kansas, K-State, Iowa State, Baylor, Missouri (?), SMU, Houston and Tulsa would make a nice nucleus of a new Big XII. Other possible members could be Rice, Southern Miss, LaTech, Tulane, Unt and Colorado State. Oh but wait! The PaC12 has reportedly rejected UT, OSU and OU, so it may be that those three schools will stay put, resulting in a much less interesting transition in the Big XII.
All of which goes to the same point. If those two wounded rump conferences can be allowed to cling to their AQ status, they will have the leverage needed to reload and there will be ample impetus for more dominoes to fall among the mid-level conferences.